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This election is consequential for far more than the future of the Trump administration. Bush’s popularity had plummeted to the mid-30s due to his mishandling of the Iraq war and Hurricane Katrina.Īccording to recent polling averages, Trump’s approval rating has been hovering at just over 40%. The Republicans have maintained or taken control of the House in every midterm election since 1994, with the exception of 2006, when President George W. Typically, turnout for midterm elections is older and whiter than it is for presidential elections, and this is a demographic that favours Republicans. And the results will be shaped by voter turnout. Smith/EAPīut given the circumstances, the Democrats remain unlikely to win a Senate majority.Ī Democratic victory in the House is far more probable, with giving the minority party a 6-in-7 chance to take back control.īecause all House seats are up for grabs, this is the contest that many will view as a national referendum on the Trump administration. Texas is one of the seats Republicans need to win to retain their hold on the Senate. The fact that Mississippi and Tennessee are even in play for the Democrats is noteworthy because Trump won both in 2016 by over 15 percentage points. They’ll also need to pick up a seat or two in the traditionally Republican states of Arizona, Texas, Tennessee and Mississippi (listed in order of likelihood). To forge a path to victory in the Senate, Democrats will need to retain seats in states that Trump won easily in 2016 – North Dakota, Montana and Missouri – as well as in Florida, where incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson faces a tough race against multimillionaire Republican Governor Rick Scott.
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When Trump comes to Australia, let's hope protesters get more creative than the baby blimp Justin Casterline/EAPįor those outside the US, this may seem remarkable, given the profoundly unethical decisions enacted by the Trump administration, and the parade of misogyny that surrounded Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s recent Senate confirmation hearing for the Supreme Court.Īnd yet, there are a number of plausible scenarios in which the minority party could actually lose ground. Even with Trump’s outrages, the Democrats’ chances of taking control of the Senate are slim.